India, the world’s most populous country with nearly 1.45 billion people, is grappling with a new challenge: declining fertility rates and a rapidly aging population. Southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are taking proactive steps to encourage larger families, highlighting the urgent need to address these demographic shifts.
Andhra Pradesh has repealed its two-child policy for local elections and is considering incentives for families to have more children. Tamil Nadu, where fertility rates have plummeted to 1.4, is exploring similar policies. Neighboring Telangana is reportedly debating related changes as well.
Fertility Trends and Regional Concerns
India’s fertility rate has steadily declined over decades. In 1950, the average woman gave birth to 5.7 children. Today, the rate stands at just two births per woman. Seventeen of India’s 29 states and union territories, predominantly in the south, have already reached or fallen below this replacement level.
While this decline reflects successful population control efforts, it has triggered concerns about political and economic repercussions. As India approaches its first electoral seat redistribution since 1976, southern states fear they may lose political representation and federal funding due to their smaller populations. These states, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, have historically contributed significantly to the national economy.
The Aging India Dilemma
India’s population is aging at an unprecedented pace compared to wealthier nations like France or Sweden. According to Srinivas Goli, a demography professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences, the country’s elderly population could double in just 28 years, adding significant strain to social security and healthcare systems.
The United Nations Population Fund’s India Ageing Report highlights that over 40% of India’s elderly live in poverty. Combined with a declining birth rate, this trend will likely increase the old-age dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers to support the elderly.
Balancing Growth and Aging
Mohan Bhagwat, leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), recently urged Indian couples to have at least three children, warning that low fertility rates threaten the nation’s future. However, experts like Tim Dyson of the London School of Economics suggest that reversing fertility trends is unlikely. Instead, he advocates for policies that emphasize healthy and active aging.
To tackle this demographic challenge, experts recommend raising retirement ages, expanding healthcare investments, and strengthening social security systems. Policymakers must balance economic growth with the realities of an aging population, ensuring sustainable development for future generations.
Earlier today, we wrote about Aging Mexico.
