Introduction: Demographic Shifts in Iran
Iran is on the brink of a significant demographic transformation as its population ages rapidly. Policies introduced in the late 20th century to curb population growth have succeeded far beyond their initial goals, resulting in a sharp decline in fertility and growth rates. Today, the nation faces the challenge of an aging society, with elderly citizens projected to comprise one-third of the population by 2050.
Fertility Policies and Their Long-term Impact
During Iran’s first five-year national development plan (1989–1993), the government sought to reduce the total fertility rate from 6.4 children per woman in 1986 to 4 children by 2011. The population growth rate was also targeted to drop from 3.2 percent to 2.3 percent over the same period. These measures, however, led to unforeseen and substantial demographic changes.
By 2011 and 2016, census data revealed that population growth had deviated significantly from the initial projections, falling to 1.29 percent and 1.24 percent, respectively. In the past Iranian year (March 2023–March 2024), the growth rate dropped further to 0.7 percent. 
Meanwhile, fertility rates have stabilized at approximately 1.6 children per woman over the last two years, well below the replacement level of 2.1. Efforts to encourage childbearing through incentives aligned with youth population laws have yet to yield the desired results. Even with a modest recovery to a total fertility rate of 2.5, Iran’s population is projected to reach only 102.89 million in the next seven years.
Aging Iran: A Growing Concern
The aging population in Iran is expanding at an unprecedented pace. Census data shows that the elderly population, growing at 3.62 percent annually, is increasing five times faster than the total population growth rate of 1.24 percent. In 2006–2007, Iran had just over 5.1 million citizens aged 60 and older. By 2015, this group made up 10 percent of the population, and it now accounts for 11.5 percent.
Projections indicate that by 2050, one-third of Iranians will be 60 years or older, marking a 32 percent share of the total population. Women, who currently make up 52.3 percent of the elderly population, outnumber men (47.7 percent).
While increased life expectancy is a positive outcome, the imbalance between the younger and older populations poses significant challenges. A shrinking youth population impacts economic productivity, innovation, and social stability. Despite ongoing efforts to reverse these trends, including childbearing incentives, the path to revitalizing Iran’s youth population remains uncertain.
Conclusion: Addressing the Challenges of an Aging Iran
Iran’s rapid demographic shift underscores the urgency of addressing the challenges posed by an aging population. As the share of elderly citizens grows, the country must explore sustainable strategies to support this demographic while encouraging higher fertility rates and youth population growth. Without effective intervention, Iran could soon become one of the world’s oldest nations, fundamentally reshaping its societal and economic landscape.
